Greetings,
The random number generator can be fickle with any tradeskill. You always remember the long runs with no skillup!
For what it's worth, post-200, it seems just as fickle as pre-200 - at least in Tailoring. I'm now at 231 skill, and have been recording the attempts taken for each skillup. For every run like 204 - 206 skill (total of 5 attempts!
), there is a time like trying to get skill 213 (71 attempts
) It does seem to average out at about 1 skillup per 17 attempts, but I'll do a full analysis once I reach the hallowed 250 level.
I've skilled up on a bit of everything since level 188. Mainly acrylia reinforced, but also over 70 Fleeting Quivers and some Imbued Mithril Reinforced leathers. And since skill level 220, I've been doing more Velious leathers. There seems to be a high failure rate on those prior to about that level, which makes them uneconomical to produce. I can now make and sell Cobalt Drake belts, Tigeraptor tunics and cloaks, and Black Pantherskin pieces regularly. While failures are still happening, they are getting less frequent, and one pantherskin tunic on my server will cover the cost of 2 - 3 failures.
Keep plugging away and you'll suddenly hit that run of 2 - 3 skillups within 10 attempts or so!
Hope this helps.