Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
I think we can safely put the "It's just anti-incumbency" angle to bed though.
Well, unless you were one of the GOP "establishment" candidates who was primaried out.
You're kidding! You're still trying to make this argument? Crazy!
They were "primaried out" because they were perceived as being too much like a Democrat politically.
Get it? It's a negative response to the Democrat's agenda, not just to people sitting in Congress. Sheesh!
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It was anger at Democrats and their policies.
It was unemployment around 10%, plain and simple.
Yes. Which they blamed on Democrats.
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Anger at the Democrats because unemployment was at 10% but if unemployment was at 6%, you wouldn't have seen the same results based purely on health care reform or the deficit.
No. They just wouldn't also have been blaming them for 10% unemployment. See. It's not just one failure Joph. Also, you seem to be missing the fact that the reason we're at 10% unemployment instead of 6% is because the Democrats went on a spending spree on things like the stimulus bill, pushing ridiculous mandates into energy and budget bills, and then following it up with a massively costly health care bill.
You can dance around and deny it all day long, but the perception is that the reason the jobs haven't come back (and to some extent the reason they left in the first place) is because those who might otherwise have put money into expanding businesses and hiring workers held their money instead when they saw how much money the Dems were spending. It's not rocket science either. Massive borrowing means either higher taxes down the line and/or significant inflation (most likely both btw).
You don't want to be the guy who
lent money right before an inflationary period, do you? That's why lenders didn't lend and the jobs started drying up. And a whole lot of people place the blame squarely on the Democrats and their agenda.
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The Democrats also faced the same issue the GOP will face now. Once you pick up the low-hanging fruit and get bolstered a bit higher by a wave election, you don't have much room to expand. If a Democrat picked up a seat that's R+6 in 2008, they were going to have trouble holding it no matter what. Likewise, the Democrats who stayed in office during a 55 seat bloodbath are probably secure in 2012 (particularly in the House since now it's Boehner's job to produce and you can't cry about Pelosi any longer). Not that Democrats will retake the House or whatever but you probably won't see an expansion of GOP gains and might even see some contraction if D+ districts that voted Republican this cycle don't keep the same anger. That's just standard political calculus.
Sure. Because the largest single shift in house seats in 80 years happens every 2 years, doesn't it? Oh wait! It doesn't. This is not "normal" calculus Joph. It's a massive yell from the masses telling the Democrats that they don't like what they've been doing. It's a rejection of the spending of the last 2 years. It's a cry out for a return to sane fiscal and monetary policy.
And you know what it really is? It's the people realizing that all the stuff they were told to hate and fear during the Bush years and when the GOP was in control have only gotten worse under Democrats. They're realizing something I've harped on you about in the past, that when you attack something in a vacuum, without comparing it fairly to a real alternative, you sometimes will make the mistake of rejecting a better thing for one that is far far worse.
That's the the voters realized. The Democrats reminded them why the people should never put them in charge of the nations purse strings. The unfortunate thing is that it appears like we have to re-learn this lesson every 15 years or so. People forget, they get caught up in the GOP bashing, and they vote in Democrats. Then they learn what *real* fiscal irresponsibility is.
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None of this is to take away form the fact that the Democrats got trounced hard last night. Ouch.
Yeah. Let's hope that the GOP can undo as much of the damage as possible.