Jophiel wrote:
Actually, Romney was leading a year ago. Then Perry, Romney, a little Cain, Gingrich then Santorum.
Assuming you mean 4 years ago? Eh. Not really paying as much attention to dates, as the pattern. Guy with lots of flash, appears to be outside the normal politics, gets a lot of attention and rises in the polls, only to crash and burn when the voters/pollers wake up and come to their senses. Trumps just doing even more hair burning in the public square than Cain did is all. I don't expect him to last for long.
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More interesting though is that, last cycle, Romney was always at least a solid second place whereas that's not the case this time. Second place seems to be switching off between Walker and Bush. Could be a long primary.
Yeah, I think that smart money is on one of those two taking the primary. Walker has just enough of a solid past (from a conservative pov) to garner national support, without the nuttiness some other candidates have (or excess baggage that we know of so far). Bush's biggest negative is that his last name is Bush. I've actually been surprised when watching him give interviews or speeches how completely different he is than his brother. Comes off much more intelligent, is a much better speaker, especially off the cuff, and he just seems like he actually understands the issues he's talking about, whereas with George, you were never quite sure if he was just repeating stuff he'd memorized about the issue at hand, or if he was just that poor at expressing himself on said issue.
I honestly do think that based on positions and just plain ability to address topics in a way that reaches voters, Bush would be the top, no question. Except for his name. Walkers not bad at all though. I'd be happy with either of them. Carson isn't a consideration (another pan flasher). Paul is also hindered by his name IMO (he's a lot less nutty than his dad though). Christie isn't going to win (I'm sticking to my "Americans wont elect a fat man to be president no matter what the average obesity rate is"). Huckabee has the media shill issue (and weight issues as well). I suppose Rubio has a long outside shot, but that's a really long one. He just doesn't have the national recognition, and fair or not he looks too young for the job. Superficial? Sure. Not sure anyone else in the list is really even worth spending time considering, but... Cruz always looks like he's trying to sell me a car. Which is sad, because I generally like what he says, just not how he says it. He looks uncomfortable in front of a crowd, like he's not quite sure who he's trying to convince about whatever he's saying. Um... Jindal? Not seeing that either. Too far out of the public eye and also not a super speaker. Another one who I like what he says, but not how he says it. Sadly, elections are as much about appearance as substance. Can't even remember who else is in the running, so that's pretty much that.
One thing about Trump. While he may lead the polls in support, he also leads (by a larger margin) in opposition. Of the three front runners, he by far does worse than the others in a head to head comparison. Bush actually leads Clinton (by one point). Walker trails Clinton (also by one point). Trump? Beat by like 12 points (or more, I closed the pdf and can't remember). Trump also gets smacked down hard by Biden (yes, Biden) and Sanders as well. Actually, I think Biden beats Trump by an even wider margin than Clinton. He also does about equally well as her against Bush and Walker, which I'm not sure speaks well of Biden so much as poorly about Clinton. Clinton's unfavorable numbers are also quite high, which may explain these results. I suspect that there's a crowd of voters who want to vote Democrat, but really do just hate Clinton, and will therefore throw themselves at any other Dem out there. And Sanders is a nutter, while Biden is just a nincompoop. At least that's my theory. Trump's numbers can be explained by most folks not really paying that much attention this early in the process and thus tending to just answer whatever they've heard in the news lately. But that doesn't work for Biden, so I'm just punting here.