Who's your money on?Follow

Of the polls that are being counted so far only Virginia actually looks like a contest.

Because everyone just assumed he'd flame out on his own (as did I). He's basically his own opposition, but it hasn't hurt him. That's the problem. The only way to counter him is to lower yourself to his level. Which no one wanted to do. It's basically a catch-22. If you stand by and hope he'll sink himself, he gains in the polls. If you engage him, you lose (see Bush for an example of this).



We were similarly confident 6 months ago Joph. I kinda (and I honestly can't believe I'm saying this) hope you're right. But I'm starting to suspect that, assuming he does win the GOP nomination, and assuming Clinton wins the Dems, that once Clinton actually tries to use that opposition research and launch attacks on him, he'll just smirk, make an offensive remark about her, and move on. And the crowds, now conditioned to respond positively to him when he does that, will absolutely love him for it.

You're going to run into the same problem the GOP is having. You're trying to run a candidate on experience, capability to fill the office in question, and the usual mix of good image, polish, professionalism, demeanor, etc. You have to run that way, because that's what people expect of their "normal" candidates, which Clinton absolutely is. The problem is that you're running against someone who literally does... not... care... about... that... stuff. At all. And his popularity stems from this. So while Clinton can and will be hurt for past mistakes, bad business dealings, shady behavior, questions about email servers, looming investigations, shrill voice, etc, the more you point at the same kind of things in Trump's past, the more he proudly owns it as proof that he's not one of those stinking politicians that everyone hates.

That's what's so bizarre about this whole thing. He's winning on the very things that usually sink a candidate. Assuming we don't see any shift in his popularity today (which doesn't look to be happening), he can't be attacked on qualifications or personality or past. Honestly, about the only thing I think you could maybe attack him on, is if you could somehow show that he actually is and has been "part of the establishment" all along. That's what he's running against, and none of the normal attacks work. I don't think the Clinton camp yet has a clue what's going to happen when they try to go after him.

She's an establishment candidate. And a weak one at that.

Trump is scratching at 50% in Georgia which would win him all of its delegates. Wins in Alabama and Tennessee. Leads in Vermont (Kasich 10pts behind) and Virginia (Rubio 7pts behind).

Apparently Trump is nearly tying Rubio in Virginia suburbs and doing unexpectedly well in the Virginia Beach area. That's... very bad for Rubio.

My favorite tag line of the night, under projected wins: Carson: nothing yet, but keep refreshing this page just in case.

Momentum is a factor in a crowded field, in a 2 person race it shouldn't be a factor.

I'd also dispute the assertion that Sanders has a small demographic.

People.

All of which is the same pattern of "Trump is a self centered jerk who does whatever he thinks is best". Um... Which is precisely what makes him popular with his supporters.



Did it hurt him? There's your answer.



And again, none of this seems to hurt him. I'm not sure why you think when Clinton brings it up, it magically will.



Ok. Whatever you need to tell yourself to qualm the fears. I'll drink a cold one for you when the time comes.

Honestly? Because while Rubio doesn't have individual states where he's super strong, his support is consistent across all regions and demographics. Cruz has a couple of narrow demographics where he is very strong. So in areas where those demographics have strength, he pulls enough out to win. But he struggles elsewhere. The theory being that if one of them were to drop out and make it a two man race, Rubio would have a better shot at taking a large share of the winner takes all states down the line than Cruz would. Obviously, this rests on the assumption that a sufficiently powerful "anyone but Trump" voting block holds sway. The same number shifting either direction between the two would make Cruz stronger in the states he's already strong in and would likely win anyway, but not be enough to get wins in other states, while Rubio, with more even support, might win many more and tip the delegate scales.

Well. At least that was the apparent pattern in the races so far. We'll see what the final numbers look like, but it's looking to me like Rubio will likely drop out at this point. He's got three second places, and a whole lot of 3rd (and I think one fourth). That's just not enough of a showing for his strategy to work IMO. And Cruz did well enough that he's definitely not getting out at this point. Hard to say what'll happen.

Holy smokes, those margins are redic.

Clinton brand among African-Americans is strong (2008 stumbles aside, which have apparently been forgiven). Helps a lot that Bill came across as very relatable in the 90's, coming off of the Reagan-Bush Lee Atwater "Cadillac Welfare Queens" era. Southern boy from a poor family willing to visit the black neighborhoods, eat collard greens, attend black baptist services and play jazz saxophone apparently gets you traction.

I think... my money is on Trump after Hayden said military won't obey him. He has the entire establishment scared ********** and there are people out there professing their devotion just because of that.

Only goes to show, you can only disenfrachise and ignore populace's wishes for so long.