Jophiel wrote:
What people like Gbaji don't get is that most people don't really adhere to ideology the same way he does.
We get it. It's why we constantly have to remind people about the importance of the ideological basis we operate on, and why this will result in better outcomes for everyone than simply separating ourselves into groups and pointing fingers at each other as the Democrats (and populists like Trump) do.
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I was reading a piece a few days ago talking about how the bulk of Trump's supporters are white Republicans, middle class or lower, often without higher education, who feel that "conservatism" is failing them. They're struggling to get by and see wealthy GOP donor class people, pundits and politicians preaching about poor people being lazy or lacking initiative when the real immediate problem is that the factory closed and moved to China.
Sure. I don't doubt that. The problem is that they're supporting a guy who is more or less the poster child of the exact form of opportunistic capitalism that has most screwed them over in their lives. That's the freaking insane part. Trump has made most of his money (well, the parts he didn't inherit) by exploiting government regulations (or lobbying politicians to create them for him), and crash and burning businesses, never caring about those who worked in them, as long as in the end, it made him money. He has on several occasions dismissed allegations about the businesses he drove into bankruptcy by countering that "I have never gone bankrupt". It shows how self centered he is. It doesn't matter if other people lost money and lost jobs, as long as he had more money in his pocket in the end.
And that's who these people are championing? I think that's stupid.
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Trump's populist message, attacks against the GOP establishment and promises to lock trade, punish China, get rid of job-stealing immigrants, etc appeal to them far far more than his views on abortion or eminent domain worry them.
Sure. It's called a populist message for a reason. What's strange is that they don't stop to think about how many job-sealing immigrants were likely working in the hotels and casinos and golf courses that are his preferred purchases. Trump cares about trade with China only to the degree that by talking about it, he can get foolish people to support him. He frankly knows even less about trade with China and how it actually affects business and jobs in the US.
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Trump talking about how the deck is stacked doesn't scare them because they already agree that the deck is stacked against them and everyone else's answer to it is "stick-to-it-tiveness". So they may not meet Gbaji's definition of "conservatives" but they are still Republicans, vote Republican and will be voting for the Republican in this race who is actually telling them something that gives them hope. If people like Gbaji are waiting for these Republicans to be horrified that Trump is a "faux-conservative", he's going to be waiting a long while. If he wants to say that they don't count as real Republicans, well, welcome to being a big part of the problem.
Yeah. Again, those people don't normally vote in GOP primaries and likely not in the general either. You get that a set of people who historically feel disenfranchised by both parties likely also historically don't vote in general elections. See my whole point about how these people staying home likely doesn't affect GOP election math much, while young voters staying home massively affects Dem election math.
I get what you're saying, I just don't agree that it has much weight in the long term. It's easy to find groups of people who are angry and feel marginalized. And you can even sometimes get them to rally around someone with the right messaging. But that hardly represents a broad ideological shift in our political landscape. Trump's level of support among GOP voters is driven by two groups. The disenfranchised right leaning independents you mention above, who will support him pretty much no matter what, and some percentage of more rank and file GOP voters who see him as a strong candidate who may not be mainstream, but is "conservative enough", for them to support. That's the set that are going to shy away from him now, and that's the set he really needed to put him in a competitive position in the race. The outsiders coming in to support him just aren't a big enough faction by themselves to do it.