Belkira the Tulip wrote:
A blog that cites a blog.
Eh, Ben Smith is usually pretty good. So is PPP for the most part. Of course, neither PPP nor Ben Smith is trying to make the point ThiefX is.
It's virtually guaranteed -- hell, strike "virtually" -- that the Democrats will lose seats in November. They picked up all the low hanging fruit in 2006 and then used the wave of Obama support to grab other seats in red districts in 2008. There's a reason why the Blue Dog coalition in the House is as large as it is: Democrats have picked up a significant number of "red" seats using centrist candidates. There just aren't any more spots left for them to make inroads until there's some demographic changes (age, race, education, whatever).
The only question is "how bad will it be". The point Smith was extrapolating form PPP's data is that the "Bush was bad" tagline isn't likely to be very effective. To be honest, the results themselves aren't very surprising, I bet they break down pretty solidly along partisan lines. There's also no threat to saying "Man, I wish we had Bush back!" if you're a Republican who wants to insult Obama since, whether you honestly want it or not, Bush ain't coming back.
If you read the PPP report, it says that 35% of (self reported) McCain voters and 5% of Obama voters think Obama should be impeached
Edited, Dec 10th 2009 1:02pm by Jophiel