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Gas prices about to rise (again)Follow

#1 Sep 21 2005 at 1:33 PM Rating: Good
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1,255 posts
Sorry for this type of subject again, but I just ran across this article. Rita is another category 4-5 hurricane headed right for the heart of US oil production. If it hits, it'll "destroy the rest of the (energy complex Hurricane) Katrina didn't." Last time we saw gas prices jump an additional $1.50+ per gallon. Who knows what this one may bring?

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/Articles/Dispatches/P130219.asp

Quote:
Energy market braces for 'national disaster'
Oil analysts and executives are preparing for Hurricane Rita's impact as energy prices rise across the board. Stocks move lower.


The oil industry is bracing for a disaster as Hurricane Rita hit Category 4, with the potential to reach Category 5, and heads towards energy infrastructure in Texas.

"If (Rita) keeps going on its current path, it's going to basically destroy the rest of the (energy complex Hurricane) Katrina didn't," Matthew Simmons, CEO of independent energy investment bank Simmons & Co. International, told CNBC's "Squawk Box."Start investing with $100.
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"It's a problem that could easily be as significant in my opinion, and I hope I'm overly exaggerating this, as Pearl Harbor," Simmons said. It could take two or three years to recover from the two storms, he added.

Given than four oil refineries are already down, Rita "really is a national disaster," Valero Energy (VLO, news, msgs) CEO Bill Greehey told Reuters.

Energy prices rose across the board, with natural gas seeing the biggest spike with concerns about damage to pipelines putting further strain on inventories ahead of winter. The higher energy prices pushed stocks lower. The Dow dropped 0.58%, the Nasdaq composite lost 0.69% and the S&P 500 index fell 0.52%.

Natural gas jumped 41.8 cents to $12.91 per million British thermal units.

The U.S. will go into winter with a lot less natural gas in storage than last year, and a colder-than-normal winter could really send prices spiking, Robert Morris, analyst at Banc of America Securities told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

New York light crude futures rose $1 to $67.20 per barrel. Unleaded gasoline for October delivery climbed 7.34 cent to $2.05 per gallon.

"If it hits the refineries, and we're short refining capacity, you're going to see gasoline prices well over $3 a gallon at the pump," Greehey told Reuters.

"People were worried post-Katrina as we have real tight product supply," Jamal Qureshi, analyst at PFC Energy, told Reuters. "Now we have a hurricane heading for the bigger part of the coastal refinery center, threatening to blow a huge hole in products supply."

Texas accounts for a quarter of oil refining capacity in the United States. Rita's winds have reached 140 miles per hour and the storm is expected to reach landfall Saturday morning.

"Some of those refineries in Texas, they're at sea level. It's a table top, it floods every easily," Ed Silliere, vice president of risk management at Energy Merchant LLC, told Reuters.

Morgan, FedEx tops targets
Morgan Stanley (MWD, news, msgs) reported earnings of $1.21 per share for its fiscal third quarter, which ended in August. Analysts surveyed by Reuters Estimates predicted a profit of $1.05 per share. Revenues rose nearly 29% from the same quarter a year ago to $6.95 billion, ahead of the consensus of $6.3 billion. But the stock fell 0.6% midday.

In other corporate news:

FedEx (FDX, news, msgs) earned $1.25 for its fiscal first quarter, which ended in August, 8 cents higher than the Reuters Estimates consensus. The company sees profit of $1.30 to $1.45 per share for its fiscal second quarter, in line with expectations.

ConAgra (CAG, news, msgs) posted earnings of 31 cents per share in its fiscal first quarter, with analysts looking for 23 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates. ConAgra also reaffirmed guidance for fiscal 2006. Shares rose nearly 7% in midday trading.

New York Times (NYT, news, msgs) said after the bell Tuesday it will cut 500 jobs. The publisher also said it sees third-quarter earnings of 15 to 20 cents per share, excluding items, below the Reuters Estimates consensus of 25 cents per share. The company also said it sees ad revenues growing in the low-single digits compared to previous guidance of low-single to mid-single digits, Briefing.com reported. The stock sank 6.75%.

Citigroup initiated coverage of Southwest Airlines (LUV, news, msgs) with a "buy" rating, saying they see lots of opportunities in domestic routes as competitors struggle, Briefing.com said.

Bond market thinks it knows better
What's up with the 10-year Treasury? The Federal Reserve hiked short-term interest rates Tuesday, but the price on the benchmark 10-year note rose, pushing its yield lower. That continued this morning as the 10-year Treasury yield sank 0.054% to 4.19%.

It's the classic flattening of the yield curve, CNBC's Rick Santelli reported. Yields on shorter maturities climbed, as usually happens when interest rates rise, but long-term rates fell. The bond market is apparently more worried about the U.S. economy than the Fed.

It could be the impact of Hurricane Katrina causing concern, or the jump in energy prices which could slow economic growth.

"I think it's the fact that the Fed raised a degree of uncertainty in their statement overnight, referring to the uncertain outcome from Katrina," Padhraic Garvey told Reuters. The Fed said most facets of the economy would suffer because of Katrina, but that the effect would be short term.

-- Kim Khan and Charley Blaine
#2 Sep 21 2005 at 1:39 PM Rating: Good
I know this is insignificant due to the damage and lives both these Hurricanes will cause, but to stay on topic, why me?.

Hurricane Katrina hits and causes gas prices to rise the weekend that I have to drive 1,000 miles to go get my marriage liscense.

Hurricane Rita will hit and cause gas prices to rise the weekend I am driving 1,000 miles for my wedding.
#3 Sep 21 2005 at 1:40 PM Rating: Good
Prices in my area have gone back down and are only slightly higher (maybe 5 cents) than they were previously (under $3). While I know it's not cheap, as I said before, people learn to adapt. And we should be thankful that's the only impact of the storm we may face directly, unlike those on the coast.

People, if you know others in the area that might get hit, tell them to evacuate NOW before it's too late.
#4 Sep 21 2005 at 1:49 PM Rating: Good
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3,139 posts
Get gas now

Carpool to work

Dont horde gas (this causes price increases. Fill your tank, and drive as little as possible. IF everyone freaks out, and buys 50 gallon drums and fills them, then it will appear we have less gas then we actually do, and the price will rise due to demand).

Buy oil stocks (if your the stock buying type).

Communicate to any and all higher beings you have for the safety of those in the path of Rita. Just like with Katrina, South Florida (where i live) was spared from Rita, but wherever she lands will be just as ugly as Katrina.

Tell friends and family to GET THE **** OUT if they are anywhere near the projected path.



#5 Sep 21 2005 at 1:59 PM Rating: Decent
Damn Ace now you tell me...

I just put spent my lifes savings buying stocks in the teletubbies...

Someone tipped me off the teletubbies were the next Pokieman...

Damn you Barchiel
#6 Sep 21 2005 at 2:04 PM Rating: Decent
37 posts
ride a chocobo, take airship?
#7 Sep 21 2005 at 2:09 PM Rating: Decent
Goleng wrote:
ride a chocobo, take airship?


My choco liscense was pulled. I got really drunk on Yagudo drinks one night and thought the choco was a fat blond chick and we got caught behind outpost in North Gustaberg. I will never gorget her sweet voice going Kewh, Kewh, KEWHHHHH!!!.

Please do not tell anyone if this gets out I will be ruined...
#9 Sep 21 2005 at 2:11 PM Rating: Decent
Tinky-Winky, et.al. was replaced by the Wiggles O.o

Um, don't ask me how I know that.

Edited, Wed Sep 21 16:41:00 2005 by lawtechguy
#10 Sep 22 2005 at 9:11 AM Rating: Decent
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3,139 posts
Quote:
Tinky-Winky, et.al. was replaced by the Wiggles O.o


Hes right, dump that teletubbies stock, and buy the wiggles.

Quote:
My choco liscense was pulled. I got really drunk on Yagudo drinks one night and thought the choco was a fat blond chick and we got caught behind outpost in North Gustaberg. I will never gorget her sweet voice going Kewh, Kewh, KEWHHHHH!!!.

Please do not tell anyone if this gets out I will be ruined...


Me thinks that was vampire juice and not yaguado drinks!! And you know that the the CSCH (Commission for safe Chocobo Handling) is gonna be after you now!!
#11 Sep 22 2005 at 10:17 AM Rating: Good
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1,255 posts
Don't forget PETA






mmmmmm PETA *drools*
#12 Sep 22 2005 at 10:47 AM Rating: Excellent
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978 posts
Saying it will destroy the rest is probably a bit of an overreaction there are some very key differences between where Rita is heading and New Orleans. The most important of which is that most of the oil refining capacity does not lie below sea level unlike New Orleans, although a great deal of it is near or at sea level. This will severly aid in the prevention of longterm flooding as seen in Katrina. Remember most of the damage down by Katrina was not wind related but flood related. In addition most of the major refineries are lie inland as a result of the fact that in the early 1900's the city of Houston dug a deep water channel heading inland in order to bypass Galveston after the 1900 hurricane devistated the city. Perhaps the most important thing to remember is that the Rita can only hit one place and refineries are centered in three areas Houston, Port Arthur, and I can't remember the third. But the point is this at worst the storm can hit with its full force maybe one of these three (all of them are at or above sea level by the way). The article has some valid points but you should also remember that the person being interviewed is an energy investor. This means that the more oil goes up the more money he makes. It is in his best interest to predict doom and the end of life and the media is all too willing to accomidate. I may be proven wrong by all this, I hope I'm not, but remember most people buy and use a lot more gas than they need to.
#13 Sep 22 2005 at 11:04 AM Rating: Good
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1,255 posts
Good points. I was only posting this article to give you the heads up (yet again). When places like CNN predict gas going to $5/gallon, I wanted to make sure we got the heads up beforehand instead of at the pump :/
#14 Sep 22 2005 at 12:20 PM Rating: Decent
this should be a wake up call for the government. maybe over the next couple decades we should think about doing away with antique oil refineries in nawlins and build some in other areas of the country. would probably help a bit. but im sure the good old US gov't has thought of that already.
#15 Sep 22 2005 at 1:14 PM Rating: Decent
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978 posts
The biggest problem is most areas of the U.S. are vulnerable to some sort of natural disaster. I think upstate Mass. and Vermont were considered the safest areas from natural disasters. Beyond that the refineries are located at the costs for more reasons than tradition. A great deal of the worlds gas is refined in the area not just U.S. and then reshiped to other points of the world. This is why we get oil from the middle east and not gas, becouse the middle east does not have the refining capacity. There are some common sense things that can be done though, such as not building below sea level and such, but for the most part these have already been done. Katrina's impact was not felt by the refineries so much as it was felt by the off shore oil rigs. Many of these were knocked out of commission thus lowering the amount of oil being supplied to the refineries.
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