Just the other day I scored a literal mother lode of stuff to disenchant. I spent 2300 gold on about 450 items to disenchant. Not all of the items I purchased were Outland greens; figure 375 of them were.
Out of all the items I disenchanted, I received a grand total of 5 Large Prismatic Shards. If there is a 5% chance that a level 64+ green can disenchant into a Large Prismatic, I should have received about 12-14 from the 375 or so 64+ greens I disenchanted. From my example, there was an actual 1.33% chance of getting one.
Another indirect reason why Large Prismatics are climbing in price are more and more fresh 70 alts bypassing standard (and even heroic, sans the daily) 5-man instances and going straight into PvP.
What can be done to alleviate this issue?
Changes that can be done immediately:
1. Increase the chance a level 64+ green can disenchant into a Large Prismatic. A very large percentage of level 64+ green is disenchanted in the first place; if more Large Prismatics come out of your standard issue random green item.
Changes that can be done by the next patch:
2. Decrease the allure of PvP by increasing the amount and quality of reputation rewards (and thus give a casual person a guaranteed reward for time spent, just like PvP does). This will encourage more instance runs, thus generating more Large Prismatic shards from unwanted drops.
3. Increase the quality of crafted epic items that require Primal Nethers. (Again, a casual person can see a crafted epic item as a guaranteed reward for time spent farming mats or cash for them) This will cause more people to farm materials, thus increasing the supply of standard issue random green items, and thus a chance for more LPS.
4. Add more itemized Badge of Justice gear (read: leather with defense rating). This will further encourage people running instances, in this case a Heroic, which will again increase supply of LPS from unwanted drops.
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Why Large Prismatic Shards are 20-30 gold eachFollow
or wait until 2.4 and grab the new enchant that breaks void crystals into 2 Large Prismatic Shards.
That isn't going to fix the problem NOW. It's also not going to alleviate the problem altogether because it's going to affect the price and availability (although there are lots of guilds who farm Kara for them) of Void Crystals.
What that change will do is not significantly increase the supply of LPS. The increase of LPS will depend upon the amount of enchanters actually shattering Void Crystals and also the availability of the crystals themselves. If the price of crystals were to make a huge jump just before 2.4 is released (as it might), the enchanters purchasing a supply of them to shatter will pass the price onto their customers, likely increasing supply but not decrease the price (as this change is intended to do)
Edited, Feb 15th 2008 9:33am by soggymaster
What that change will do is not significantly increase the supply of LPS. The increase of LPS will depend upon the amount of enchanters actually shattering Void Crystals and also the availability of the crystals themselves. If the price of crystals were to make a huge jump just before 2.4 is released (as it might), the enchanters purchasing a supply of them to shatter will pass the price onto their customers, likely increasing supply but not decrease the price (as this change is intended to do)
Edited, Feb 15th 2008 9:33am by soggymaster
The price (for LPS) will go down simply because either the larger guilds breaking their own void crystals and no longer needing the Ah ones, or the AH will be flooded with twice as many LPS as before (2.4), driving the price down because of under cutters.
The lesser demand and higher supply should drive the price sharply down.
I do agree that there is little that can be done now with the prices simply because people will try to squeeze what they can out of the wares before the large influx of supplies flood the market.
The lesser demand and higher supply should drive the price sharply down.
I do agree that there is little that can be done now with the prices simply because people will try to squeeze what they can out of the wares before the large influx of supplies flood the market.
I'm not sure how people playing PvP impacts the price of LPSs (or the price of tea in China, for that matter), but here's my take on the LPS market.
The price of LPS on my server runs between 18-25g, mostly hovering in the low 20's. I'm not sure I see a need for any drastic changes to the supply or price of LPS. The ones I post sell, which tells me they're at a price acceptable to at least one other person. I'm happy with that.
I too get my shards through DE - I use enchantrix, but I also scan the AH for rare items lvl 65-73 and buy any that are cheap enough to provide me profit. I've had great success with this method.
The OP should check out the 2.4 patch notes because many of his suggestions are being implemented (though not NOW). They are boosting the loot drops and rewards for 25-man raids and adjusting the PvP reward system. These are designed to reduce reliance on welfare epics and get folks back in the dungeon. These are in addition to the void crystal chant, which is the item that will have the largest impact on LPS supply (if not price).
The price of LPS on my server runs between 18-25g, mostly hovering in the low 20's. I'm not sure I see a need for any drastic changes to the supply or price of LPS. The ones I post sell, which tells me they're at a price acceptable to at least one other person. I'm happy with that.
I too get my shards through DE - I use enchantrix, but I also scan the AH for rare items lvl 65-73 and buy any that are cheap enough to provide me profit. I've had great success with this method.
The OP should check out the 2.4 patch notes because many of his suggestions are being implemented (though not NOW). They are boosting the loot drops and rewards for 25-man raids and adjusting the PvP reward system. These are designed to reduce reliance on welfare epics and get folks back in the dungeon. These are in addition to the void crystal chant, which is the item that will have the largest impact on LPS supply (if not price).
While I haven't been too keen on patch notes for 2.4, it's still fresh on the PTR and as such with a new raid instance in it, several months away.
The ideas I suggested are easily implemented and can be done with limited development time and effort; some right away.
The ideas I suggested are easily implemented and can be done with limited development time and effort; some right away.
What "problem"? Why the heck should anyone with a disenchanter want the price of LPS to drop?
There are three crafting recipies available to me that will reliably generate a LPS when disenchanted. All of them cost in the neighborhood of 24g in mats (at lower end prices) on my server. LPS sell for around 30g (at higher end prices) on my server. So by buying low and selling high, I can turn a 5g profit on crafted LPS.
If the price drops, that profit goes away. That means the supply will drop a little--I'm not going to make them at no profit--so the prices won't tank completely, just enough to ruin my business.
If you are one of the poor saps without a disenchanting alt, I have a much better suggestion for you than any of your three: get yourself a freaking disenchanting alt. Honestly, it's like printing your own money sometimes.
There are three crafting recipies available to me that will reliably generate a LPS when disenchanted. All of them cost in the neighborhood of 24g in mats (at lower end prices) on my server. LPS sell for around 30g (at higher end prices) on my server. So by buying low and selling high, I can turn a 5g profit on crafted LPS.
If the price drops, that profit goes away. That means the supply will drop a little--I'm not going to make them at no profit--so the prices won't tank completely, just enough to ruin my business.
If you are one of the poor saps without a disenchanting alt, I have a much better suggestion for you than any of your three: get yourself a freaking disenchanting alt. Honestly, it's like printing your own money sometimes.
That's on your realm. On mine, it is not true. Imbued Netherweave items sell for the approximate cost of LPS and it is not cost effective to turn extra Arcane Dust into Imbued bolts to craft into Imbued Netherweave. As a result, LPS has increased in price steadily from 15 (when my enchanter reached 275 enchanting) to on average, 22g50s each currently.
I am an enchanter on my main character. I disenchant for profit. However, my main source of income comes from Greater Planar Essence, not LPS because I cannot depend on them.
Edited, Feb 15th 2008 11:43am by soggymaster
I am an enchanter on my main character. I disenchant for profit. However, my main source of income comes from Greater Planar Essence, not LPS because I cannot depend on them.
Edited, Feb 15th 2008 11:43am by soggymaster
Why exactly would you want the price of LPS to go down?
I think the price of LPS is fair. If anything, it should go up. Money is so easy to come by nowadays that a 20-30g LPS is easy pickings.
Also, the 5% number doesn't mean you will get exactly 5%. There is a tolerance around it, and you just got unlucky...really unlucky. Someone else who DEd 375 items may get 20+ LPSs.
I'm sorry you got unlucky, but it happens. It's not a reason to try and change the game.
I think the price of LPS is fair. If anything, it should go up. Money is so easy to come by nowadays that a 20-30g LPS is easy pickings.
Also, the 5% number doesn't mean you will get exactly 5%. There is a tolerance around it, and you just got unlucky...really unlucky. Someone else who DEd 375 items may get 20+ LPSs.
I'm sorry you got unlucky, but it happens. It's not a reason to try and change the game.
It can be a reason to change the game. 375 items and getting 5 LPS is only the beginning. How about the thousands of greens I've disenchanted since getting to 275 enchanting? I can remember only obtaining in the neighborhood of 2 stacks of LPS.
Wow - I stand corrected. That sux.
Honestly, I've never power DEd green items looking for LPS, so I never really paid attention. I usually get more than enough from DEing blues while running instances. If I get one from DEing a green - then I'm psyched.
Honestly, I've never power DEd green items looking for LPS, so I never really paid attention. I usually get more than enough from DEing blues while running instances. If I get one from DEing a green - then I'm psyched.
soggymaster wrote:
On mine... Imbued Netherweave items sell for the approximate cost of LPS and it is not cost effective to turn extra Arcane Dust into Imbued bolts to craft into Imbued Netherweave. As a result, LPS has increased in price steadily from 15 (when my enchanter reached 275 enchanting) to on average, 22g50s each currently.
So you think you want the price to go down? Dude, you want the price to go up.
Prices that low on such a high-demand item are just screaming for profiteering. If 2.4 and the crystal-to-shard recipie weren't on the way, I'd advise you to try buying out the LPS market a few days running and relisting at a 5-10g profit on a Tuesday. But since the LPS supply should increase somewhat when all the raiders start splitting their crystals, you could conceivably lose a lot in devaluing if your LPS stock was high when it hits.
soggymaster wrote:
If there is a 5% chance that a level 64+ green can disenchant into a Large Prismatic, I should have received about 12-14 from the 375 or so 64+ greens I disenchanted. From my example, there was an actual 1.33% chance of getting one.
You flip a coin there is a 50% chance to land on heads, that does not mean that if you flip a coin 100 times it will land on heads 50 times.
emmitsvenson wrote:
So you think you want the price to go down? Dude, you want the price to go up.
Prices that low on such a high-demand item are just screaming for profiteering. If 2.4 and the crystal-to-shard recipie weren't on the way, I'd advise you to try buying out the LPS market a few days running and relisting at a 5-10g profit on a Tuesday. But since the LPS supply should increase somewhat when all the raiders start splitting their crystals, you could conceivably lose a lot in devaluing if your LPS stock was high when it hits.
Prices that low on such a high-demand item are just screaming for profiteering. If 2.4 and the crystal-to-shard recipie weren't on the way, I'd advise you to try buying out the LPS market a few days running and relisting at a 5-10g profit on a Tuesday. But since the LPS supply should increase somewhat when all the raiders start splitting their crystals, you could conceivably lose a lot in devaluing if your LPS stock was high when it hits.
This is a good idea, but it still doesn't change the supply end of the problem. I could start profiteering the LPS market and make them go up another 5 gold or so per. However, the supply probably won't change because there are still going to be folks (like me) who want to have a stock of them for enchants such as 35 agility.
Synntastic wrote:
You flip a coin there is a 50% chance to land on heads, that does not mean that if you flip a coin 100 times it will land on heads 50 times.
I can flip a coin 100 times and end up with a 60/40 heads to tails result. I can also roll a 100-sided die and expect to see the side marked 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 5% of the time. Rolling this 100-sided die thousands of times should equate to see the numbers 1-5 5% of the time, not 1%.
soggymaster wrote:
I can flip a coin 100 times and end up with a 60/40 heads to tails result. I can also roll a 100-sided die and expect to see the side marked 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 5% of the time. Rolling this 100-sided die thousands of times should equate to see the numbers 1-5 5% of the time, not 1%.
You can also flip that same coin and get a 98-2 ratio. Thats the problem with the % chance. It should work out, and the longer and longer you continue to do it, it should work out, but in the end it still is a chance that it doesn't work out to 5% for you personally.
You have to remember bottom feeder and whatever other add-ons that show the % for disenchanting mats, took a much larger sample size(I'm assuming they didn't hack the system to find the actual number, considering everytime I disenchant something it records it). So this number is derived from all the enchanters on all the realms. Where your simple 375 greens could be less than 1% of that whole sample size(that's a made up number, but just use as a reference guide).
The tables can of course be turned, and the next time you buy out, oh say 100 greens, and you come out with 10 large prismatics. It's sort of like the whole sprite and coke give-aways. They advertise 1 in 6 is a winner, so theoretically if I buy a six pack I should be gauranteed a winner, it doesn't always work out that way.
But like someone said, wait until 2.4 when you can turn a void crystal into 2 large prismatics, there will be much more prismatics available then. Because aparantly on other servers void crystals are cheap(around 10g) and much more plentiful than large prismatics.
I'm still trying to figure that one out, my server large prismatics go for 25g, void crystals go for 30g....
i just make LPS from arcanoweave bracers, which costs me 19g to make.
i'm buying cloth & greens that DE into dust as fast as i can... and making a killing selling shards for 30g each. i really wish blizz wouldn't add the new void transmute.
i'm buying cloth & greens that DE into dust as fast as i can... and making a killing selling shards for 30g each. i really wish blizz wouldn't add the new void transmute.
The reason they are so expensive is simple economics. There are a TON of enchants that need large pris shards (high demand) and few sources of them (low supply). Economics 101 tells you that when demand is higher than supply, the price goes up.
Why do you think voids have been so cheap the last few months? Very few of the standard enchants need voids (low demand) and with lots of raiders clearing though things like kara they are able to get them fairly easily (high supply). Again, basic economics states that when supply is higher than demand, the price is low. This is changing slightly with 2.4 (it has already started) since you can convert voids into shards, so demand is skyrocketing, thus increasing the price.
What can be done? well you can make more blues drop in more places, but then the value of having a blue would be less (reference: welfare epics). Or you can reduce the number needed for the standard enchants.
It is my prediction that the 2.4 changes will have very little effect on the price of shards. Supply is still low (though will be slightly higher), and demand easily outstrips it. That's because they're not actually making any changes to shards themselves, they're making a change to void crystals. Price of voids should easily double, then level off to the point where you will make little to no profit converting void crystals into shards.
Ever since I started playing MMORPGs (FFXI) I noticed how much a part simple economics play in auction house pricing. This certainly holds true in WoW. Just like the government, any time a 3rd party interferes with the system (even with good intentions), the outcome is rarely desirable. Real life example is rent control. It had the intent of reducing the cost of reting, but the system just changed and now there's subletting and prices are as high as, if not higher, than they were originally. In warcraft, these changes will just increase the prices of void crystals, and will have little to no effect on the price of shards.
Edited, Feb 15th 2008 5:54pm by Dilbrt
Why do you think voids have been so cheap the last few months? Very few of the standard enchants need voids (low demand) and with lots of raiders clearing though things like kara they are able to get them fairly easily (high supply). Again, basic economics states that when supply is higher than demand, the price is low. This is changing slightly with 2.4 (it has already started) since you can convert voids into shards, so demand is skyrocketing, thus increasing the price.
What can be done? well you can make more blues drop in more places, but then the value of having a blue would be less (reference: welfare epics). Or you can reduce the number needed for the standard enchants.
It is my prediction that the 2.4 changes will have very little effect on the price of shards. Supply is still low (though will be slightly higher), and demand easily outstrips it. That's because they're not actually making any changes to shards themselves, they're making a change to void crystals. Price of voids should easily double, then level off to the point where you will make little to no profit converting void crystals into shards.
Ever since I started playing MMORPGs (FFXI) I noticed how much a part simple economics play in auction house pricing. This certainly holds true in WoW. Just like the government, any time a 3rd party interferes with the system (even with good intentions), the outcome is rarely desirable. Real life example is rent control. It had the intent of reducing the cost of reting, but the system just changed and now there's subletting and prices are as high as, if not higher, than they were originally. In warcraft, these changes will just increase the prices of void crystals, and will have little to no effect on the price of shards.
Edited, Feb 15th 2008 5:54pm by Dilbrt
Dilbrt wrote:
Price of voids should easily double, then level off to the point where you will make little to no profit converting void crystals into shards.
I doubt that, for the same reasons that Primal Earth doesn't sell for the same price as Primal Water, even though Alchemists can turn one into the other:
1) There's a cooldown on the transmute.
2) The transmute is a rep reward unavailable to many.
3) The supply of the ingredients is greater than the supply of the product.
The recent rise in the prices of Void Crystals is due to speculation, and is therefore subject to market readjustment. Unless the Sunwell contains more Enchanting formulas, etc. that use Void Crystals, I expect their price to stay much lower than the cost of two LPS.
So transmuting VCs to LPSs should be moderately profitable.
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